Thursday, July 22, 2004

UKIP's Bloom: a character type

The UKIP (or Swivel-Eyed Loons, as blogging SOPs oblige me to call them)'s Godfrey Bloom, MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber has made a fool of himself by trying to get on to the European Parliament's women's rights committee despite his obvious handicap. To the obvious handicap he lost no time in adding several more that might not have been obvious at first sight: that he's an arrogant, misogynistic and childish little get. Mr Bloom declared that he wanted "to deal with women's issues because I just don't think they clean behind the fridge enough", and further explained that he was "going to promote men's rights".

Exactly what these might be was clarified when he went on to state that he "was here to represent Yorkshire women, who always have dinner on the table when you get home". (Note: the comma is the Guardian's. I'm not sure if the last 11 words were originally a relative clause, in which case all Yorkshire women by definition have dinner on the table etc etc, or if they are a run-on sentence, in which case he only represents those Yorkshire women who etc etc and no others. I suspect in the latter case such women would probably agree that he didn't represent them.) In a further effort to get out his philosophy, he stated that "the more women's rights you have, it's actually a bar to their employment...(ed: never mind the grammar)...no self-respecting small businessman with a brain in the right place would ever employ a lady of child-bearing age".

Strange. If that's a matter of "men's rights", I suppose Bloom believes that anyone who has a small business is a man. How odd. Mind you, one criticism that can never be aimed at Bloom, unlike his party leader, is a vague grasp of policy.
"Mr Bloom explained that he would like to overturn EU maternity legislation if his position allowed. He said maternity laws that gave women six months of paid leave and the option of another six months unpaid leave, had resulted in women losing jobs and employment. Many businesses only employed women over 40, he said."
How did he get that way? The answer is in the widely published photo of him, which sadly is unavailable on the web. Fat-faced, he stands in a boxy black suit and a glaring yellow tie with a huge knot, armed with an old-fashioned and clearly expensive briefcase and, dear God, a bowler hat. To those familiar with Yorkshire, the signs are all there.

There is a particular kind of Yorkshireman who expresses all the stereotyped characteristics to excess - plain speaking is taken to the level of pointless verbal brutality, pride to arrogance, hard work to an obsession with money, respect for tradition to philistine provincialism. The type is usually found somewhere in the triangle York-Harrogate-Leeds, often talking extremely loudly in a pub, bar or other place of entertainment aimed up-market. He (it always seems to be he) has his own peculiar variant of the dialect, the vowels squeezed into a compromise between Yorkshire and the south, and his own distinctive style. This combines ultraconservatism with lavish expense and a gadget fetish. He may dress like a City lawyer in 1953, and spend a fortune to look like that, but he will use a mobile phone more powerful than his own brain and insist on telling you all about it. 15 years ago he would have driven a Rolls Royce. Now it will either be an extravagant sports car in lurid tones or a gigantic Range Rover in British Racing Green. He reads the Yorkshire Post and considers the national press effeminate, with the occasional exception of the mighty FT when he visits London. He is either in business or else, the law, and can be found sweating menacingly down his braces as he lumps in an office chair.

Politically, it goes without saying, he is tribally conservative. Although his natural habitat is urban or suburban (see above), he likes to seem countrified. He is driven into a rage by the abolition of foxhunting but has very likely never hunted. His anti-Europeanism is intense. He enjoys aggressive, boozy socialising and machismo, and this marks his political views. Everything is the fault of someone else, preferably a foreigner. In groups they can poison the atmosphere of an entire pub in seconds, swilling ale, braying, tormenting the barmaid, spilling ale and lumbering against bystanders. It is similar to the southern, rugby union and rowing, hooray but with the distinction that these don't grow out of it - they behave like this from 16 to death or incapacity. Just the budget and hence the locale alters. Politically they are much like that, as Bloom has neatly shown, blundering aggressively about blurting unacceptable nonsense and telling jokes in catastrophically bad taste, before bleating if they encounter superior force.

The key to understanding him is that he and his brothers are the only social group who try to be nouveau riche, even when they are not. Taken individually, they can usually control themselves up to a point. They are unlikely, despite telling nigger jokes at the drop of a hat, to disgrace themselves if put to the test. But in the security of the herd, they become a menace.

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Der Standard - Private jailers claim US official involvement

Story (in German)

It is reported that the three US civilians accused of operating a private jail in Kabul (see below) have claimed before an Afghan court that they acted with the knowledge and encouragement of the US Army in Afghanistan. Their leader, Jonathan Keith Idema, claimed to have handed over "international terrorists" on two occasions to the authorities and said he could substantiate his claims with documents.

Those Defence Cuts: Jacko's Message

Well, perhaps the longest and most tiresome defence policy spin war in memory is over and the full details are out. In some ways it wasn't as bad as the tireless briefers kept suggesting to susceptible papers like the Telegraph - the maximum horror versions included, for example, the scrapping of both the RAF's Jaguar and Harrier aircraft, the scrapping of many of the RAF support helicopters and the Army's Gazelles, plus swingeing cuttage for the Navy and the disbandment of the entire Royal Irish Regiment and more.

Well, either the Torygraph was as credulous as usual on such matters or the spinners were successful. The Irish stay, and the Scottish Division is to lose one battalion instead of the positive massacre some suggested. Where the pressure goes is the RAF - the Jaguar fleet is to be retired early, and its base at Coltishall will close. I suppose there is a degree of sense to that, as many people have pointed out the oddness of having three bomber types (Jag, Harrier and Tornado GR4). The Jaguars in a sense fell between two stools - neither having the "first night of the war" status of the Tornados (or the shared maintenance) nor the VTOL capability of the Harriers. Unexpectedly, though, a Tornado F3 air defence squadron is to be disbanded. The Navy's planned new carriers are upheld, though it's anybody's guess if they will appear or when. However, the Navy will have to see six ships go - the three oldest Type 42 destroyers and three Type 23 frigates. (Note - this is on top of a reduction in the order for the Type 45 ships, and the retirement of the Sea Harrier. Not that the 42's were much use, but the navy's air defence looks less assured still.)

The big change was in the army. Aside from the cut of 4 battalions - one in Scotland and 3 from England - the arms plotting system, established in 1882, is to go. This means that infantry units will no longer be rotated through different roles and bases but will have a fixed base and a speciality. Soldiers will be posted between the battalions, which implies some sort of merger between regiments. What looks likely will be the formation of regionally based regiments with several battalions each (possibly allowing symbols to be preserved). The point is to avoid the problem that units stop being available every so often when they retrain for a new role under arms plotting - this is meant to more than make up for the cut. ("a. Operational Availability. An order of battle comprising 36 battalions which are always available will be more capable than one of 40 drawn down by a significant number of battalions moving, re-roling and re-training") I think they'll be lucky.

So, it seems, does General Jackson if this quote from his message to the army today, a copy of which I obtained, is anything to go by:
"But I am conscious that some of the changes may appear counter-intuitive to an Army which is under sustained operational pressure, and which may – at least in part - see these changes as a threat as much as an opportunity."
You're not kidding, Jacko. But I can't imagine anyone believing this snippet:
"It would be quite wrong to think that the re-balancing in FAS is driven by money"


The message is here for those who like that sort of thing.

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Naughty, naughty, very naughty

Boo! to the Voice of America thanks to one of their employees, who searched the web for "phone lines porno sao tome" and somehow hit the Ranter (we are the 30th Yahoo result for that). What the broadcaster desperate for West African dirty talk (or possibly information on dialler scams) got would have been the first Viktor Bout article, here.

Disappointing, I think.

Saturday, July 17, 2004

Bye By Election - Blair Blitzed, Beaten But not in Brum or by Butler - quite

Yet another crisis week for the government has gone by without apparently doing any damage. The Butler report punched in but again failed to either nail down the prime minister or to convincingly clear him. Where Lord Hutton's report denied that anything was wrong, Butler's made it abundantly clear that plenty was wrong, but crucially avoided assigning blame to any individual or indeed organisation. The government was left to moan that there have now been four inquiries "producing over a million words" of examination. Can't we please move on? It ought to be superfluous to point out the flaws in all four inquiries - the Foreign Affairs Committee's Labour majority and lack of access to papers, the Intelligence and Security Committee's position as the creature of the prime minister, Lord Hutton's restricted remit and Butler's specific instruction to comment on "processes and systems" as opposed, presumably, to individuals. After all, to misquote Mark Twain, you can't hang a clue for murder. The same, I suppose, goes for a system.

It is worth recapping a little. The huge release of papers to Hutton made various things clear. We now know that the dossier was repeatedly re-drafted and that in this redrafting process the language was altered and various qualifiers were removed. We also know that members of the prime minister's political staff commented on the drafts to the intelligence officials, most famously in No. 10 chief of staff Jonathan Powell's email to JIC Chairman John Scarlett asking for more compelling intelligence. Even Lord Hutton was willing to concede that efforts to produce the most persuasive paper possible might have "subconsciously influenced" the drafters. Now, Butler has produced the drafts themselves. It is clear that somebody was trying to boost - to sex up - the dossier, and Butler as good as says so. Lest we forget, yer man Godric Smith told the Hutton inquiry that "on the presentational side" Alastair Campbell did indeed take part in producing the dossier. It's a slow burn, but as far as I can see the infamous Gilligan story is being corroborated.

Which means no-one should be surprised to see a swing against Labour of 26%+ when it turns up. Despite frenzied and extremely bad-tempered campaigning, Labour saw a rock solid seat like Leicester South evaporate and effectively relied on a small split vote to the Galloway fan club in Birmingham. Everyone politically is now saying - well, it's a byelection, the Lib Dems can't repeat at the general election.

No-one has yet to say why.

Thursday, July 15, 2004

From the search requests

We are the no. 1 Google result for "UK disposable soldier". We are also no. 18 for "email contacts of sweethearts company in asia". Trust me, it's as bad as it sounds.

BBC Stupidity

Essential viewing tonight - not just one but two BBC documentaries on Saudi Arabia (This World, 2100, BBC2, and The House of Saud, 2320, BBC2), and another produced from 6 months' secret filming of BNP meetings (The Secret Agent, 2100, BBC1). Highlights include their shirt-pocket führer Nick Griffin ranting madly about Muslims raping white girls to a pubful of supporters in Keighley. Too close to home.

In an egregiously stupid act, the Beeb has scheduled the BNP and Saudi docs to go out simultaneously! So it's a choice - Saudis or fascists? (Is there a logical flaw here?) The reason appears to be that the 50minute This World is to go out after an hour of GOLF HIGHLIGHTS! Do they have highlights in golf? And why couldn't they show the hour of golf in the BBC1 9pm slot, instead of the BNP film - which would have allowed them to show it before the Saudi one? You wonder how decisions like that get made.

Blogs for today

Spyblog agrees with my reaction to the Mexican microchip story - astonishment and horror-fixation, roughly - quoting a AP story including some even weirder implications. Jewelry and mobile phones loaded with RFID chips indeed. Of course, the next step would be to carry your own scanner so as to know if anyone was pinging the chip - one imagines the habitues of that Barcelona nightclub warily eyeing the read-out on their diamond-studded mobys and wondering if it was just a routine security check or the preparations of a tech-savvy murderer.

Gregorian Ranting has some amusing stuff concerning books..."People get startled whenever they see how many books I have. Sometimes their jaws drop and they say things like 'You have so many books... have you read them all?'" ...and quotes Flann O'Brien:
"On the other hand, a school-boy's Latin dictionary looks read to the point of tatters. You know that the dictionary has been opened and scanned perhaps a million times, and if you did not know that there was such a thing as a box on the ear, you would conclude that the boy is crazy about Latin and cannot bear to be away from his dictionary"
At school, I remember, there was a curious phrase in constant use. People spoke of any book that was not a textbook as a "reading-book", which begs the question what other kind of book there is.

Of course, it was really a distinction between exercise books, text books and the like and anything you might read without being forced to.

Jason Kitcat has been the target of a handbagging by the Austrian foreign ministry after his presentation to an e-voting conference in Bregenz apparently offended them. I wouldn't worry too much, anything that annoys the current Austrian government is probably a good thing.

Wednesday, July 14, 2004

Interesting

It was considered sensational when an Airbus A300 belonging to DHL was hit by a surface-to-air missile near Baghdad last year(link, picture), narrowly surviving after the crew succeeded in manoeuvring back to the airport and landing without the hydraulics - they could only control the aircraft by varying the thrust on the engines separately.

It seems, though, that another civilian aircraft survived a SAM hit over Baghdad on the 28th of April. The plane, an Armenian-registered Antonov 12, serial number 8345607, registration EK-12555, leased to Daallo Airlines in Djibouti, suffered flap and aileron damage at around 8000ft altitude on departure but landed safely, being in the words of my source "built like a brick shithouse". (After all, the type was conceived with two purposes in mind - tactical transport for the military and rough field operations in Siberia.) It would appear that the story was originally hushed up. I thought this might have been a Viktor Bout-related matter, but Daallo are apparently respectable.

Bloody idiot

Man shot self in testicles after drinking 15 pints of lager and "arguing with lifelong friend over whose turn it was to buy beer".

Kidnappers and RFID chips

It is reported that senior Mexican officials including the attorney-general have had identifying chips implanted into their persons. These are intended to control access to sensitive information and provide a means of locating them in the event of kidnapping. Presumably the "chips" are RFID devices, which would emit a radio signal containing a unique identifier when queried by a transmitter.

Of course, they would also provide a means of tracking their location whereever they go. Supposedly, it is widely believed in Mexico that this technology is in common use - a kidnapping gang has emerged that strips its victims and demands under threat of mutilation that they reveal where the device is. The implication is clearly that they would then hack it out of their flesh.

This is, I think, a grim example of a future trend - the increasing use of advanced security technology as a form of class distinction, and its exploitation by the criminals against whom it is directed. After all, the equipment used to query an RFID chip is fairly cheap general purpose technology. If the police, or private interests, can track your location to assure your safety, the kidnappers could use the same technology to find you. They might discover the identity signal, and either monitor the frequency for it or actively broadcast the "ping" to trigger it - giving them the ability to locate and identify you. Sao Paulo has become in recent years a helicopter Mecca as the demand for transport by helicopter ballooned. Fear of kidnapping drove even the middle classes to take to using air taxi services, which was good news for Portuguese-speaking helicopter pilots but probably no-one else. This is the information equivalent, as is the Barcelona nightclub whose members can use an RFID chip to beat the queue past the velvet rope and order drinks on account. That is comic, but the Mexican story is probably more significant.

The danger is that strategems like this, desperate responses to a public sphere and social fabric utterly lacking, will spread. If you can use your RFID tracking gear in Mexico City, why not in London? It is in the nature of complex and interdependent systems that changes in the ephemeral surface can bring about major changes to the structure. When computers were installed as furniture in office buildings, the building services had to change, which could mean quite radical changes in the architecture. The Mexican officials with their microchips have effectively drawn the frontier between Raymond Aron's "world of order" and "world of chaos" on their bodies - kidnapping as a common crime seems to be a phenomenon of those cities on that frontier, like Mexico City, Sao Paulo or indeed Baghdad.

Monday, July 12, 2004

Hmm..file sharing Ipods. Nice. (warning techy post)

The Register reports that a group of Romanians have invented wireless mobile music sharing.
"Instead, it's a small two-man smartphone software company based in Bucharest. Best known for its Symbian Series 60 software, Simeda recently introduced a small piece of file discovery software for wireless Pocket PCs which implemented Apple's Rendezvous service. Now they've gone a step further, and begun to make the iPod truly social.

In a bundle that hooks a Pocket PC up to an iPod - with the iPod as a USB slave device - the entire contents of the yuppy's music hoard can now be shared with the rest of the world: via streaming or file transfer."

The battles of Amara

Sunday Times report

Almost all the news concerning the British sector in Iraq has involved the area around Amara in one way or another, but it's been hard to pull together. The Sunday Times (Sunderer, perhaps?) has done a good job though, with this story on the Princess of Wales' Royal Regt in the area. Apparently in 3 months they were involved in some 300 contacts, culminating in the famous bayonet charge at checkpoint Danny Boy.

Impressive though the story is, and confirming how silly it would be to cut the real army for the sake of whizzy gadgets (eh, Plastic Gangster) this is not a good news story. Good news from Iraq would be boring - order, calm, quiet. The progress of a counter-insurgency campaign is marked not by battles but by the lack of them - the Americans' fallacy in Vietnam. That, a year after "the war" was over, a single battalion in the supposedly "quiet Shia south" was involved in 300 combat incidents and had to call on heavy tanks, Tornado and AC130 aircraft, before finally going in with the bayonet, is a marker of how badly things are wrong in Iraq.

Sunday, July 11, 2004

Did Blair really wobble that much?

NO question as to what the main story at the moment is. The suggestion that Blair was talked out of resigning last month is a beauty, whose importance is only borne out by the race by cabinet ministers to distance themselves from it. A small industry has already grown up producing weird conspiracy-ish explanations. One that has some official support is that the whole story was somehow cooked up to make Blair look nicer. A strange argument - if we give the impression that I'm on the point of giving in, they'll love me again. Doesn't sound too likely.

Apparently, Blair was persuaded by the love of a good woman not to throw it all away - whoops, by the intervention of four ministers. It should come as no surprise to see which ones - John Reid and Charles Clarke, ex-Kinnockites who have taken over the role of being closer to Blair than any others from the "special republican guards" like Alan Milburn. Patricia Hewitt - another of the old Kinnock team, and one of the first to retool. Tessa Jowell is a deep Blairite anyway. Everyone involved is now involved in the complex task of both denying anything happened and also confirming that they did indeed go to see Tony B - after all, if they hadn't offered him a shoulder to cry on (even though, of course, he wasn't crying) they wouldn't be proper Blairites, so they can't deny it! British Politics suggests that someone was trying to make a major demonstration of loyalty by putting out the story. Well, it's an explanation, I suppose. Maybe all those Big Intervention banners had some effect, eh.

During the course of Friday, I'd consumed two national newspapers, BBC radio and TV news for breakfast and after dinner, some overseas news sources and a swag of blogs. Binge newsing. The next morning, I didn't listen to the BBC, and although I read part of the Guardian on the way, I was utterly foxed when members of my family greeted me with comments about Blair going. They seemed to think from the Big Intervention banners on this blog that I'd known something about it. I didn't even know it had happened. They, though, had listened to Today that morning. Moral: If you don't listen to the BBC, you know nothing.

Friday, July 09, 2004

What now? Mystery of free lances and their own little jail

The Guardian reports that Afghan police in Kabul have uncovered a group of mercenaries who were operating their own prison under the cover of an "import business". In the building they had several people hanging upside down, who had apparently been beaten up first. Lovely.
Although the group's leader is apparently one Jonathan Keith Idema, who claims to be a former member of US special forces, and they were all dressed in US battledress, it is claimed that this was a "freelance counter-terrorist mission" and that they were "bounty hunters" after the rewards offered for various al-Qa'ida leaders.

Mr. Idema has a curious background, having displayed himself copiously as a "security expert" on television and - bizarrely - sued Dreamworks over the plot of the film The Peacemaker, in which George Clooney played an officer on the trail of nuclear smugglers. There is much hagiographic comment about him on the net, but most of it appears on low-credibility right wing sites like Newsmax and WorldNetDaily, best known for rumours and ads for quack remedies. Or gun-nut conspiracy sites..link But this is surely hardly relevant. More interesting was that he rocked up in Afghanistan during the original war, and appeared on telly with supposed "al-Qa'ida training camp footage" showing evil terrorists "practising to take over schools". Again, the story seems to have been pitched to a careful selection of outlets (Free Republic, WND, Fox...yuck.) What exactly was he doing? Further, and interestingly, it seems his special forces time was spent as a quartermaster, which fits with the business he went into (making fancy webbing kit). Despite having spetn his career in the stores with the rats, rats, rats as big as cats, he managed to claim that he made operational parachute jumps with his dog. Very plausible.


Curiously, the US military in Afghanistan had been briefing the press prior to the arrests that Idema had nothing to do with him. This seems to argue foreknowledge. It would be an easy conclusion that the Afghan police blundered into some sort of super-spook CIA operation. But Idema's curious Walter Mitty background and fraud convictions would argue against that. As would his various schemes to make a blockbuster movie about nuclear smugglers. After all, back in the early 1990s, the possibility of nuclear material or even complete weapons vanishing from the former Soviet Union was a fashionable issue. Despite considerable attention, real cases were rare. What were much more common, as various hacks and police forces found to their cost, were chancers trying either to pass off innocuous material as weapons-grade when they had a customer, or to secure rewards from the authorities. Nuclear smuggling was a dog that didn't bark (though I bet Idema's would have done if it had ever been on an operational parachute drop), but nuclear fraud was quite another matter. But a lot of the same stories have been recycled by War on Trrr boosters, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of the same people were.

But we are still nowhere near an explanation. As Josh Marshall points out, why would you want your own jail?
"It just seems like someone must have been paying this guy to do something, unless it's like a blog where you just set up shop and figure that someday a revenue stream might turn up."
Most amusing. The man in question is now in the tender care of the Afghan intelligence service. God pays debts without money, as my mother would say, but what the hell was going on?

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Result!

Firm whose washing machine cooked worker fined £325,000

This case, which I blogged at the time, has finally been nailed down. To recap, Paul Clegg ventured into a 40ft long industrial washing machine to clear it of sheets tangled in the workings. He was overcome by heat inside the thing, but although people outside knew this, no-one could help. They could not help because none of them knew there was an escape hatch in the side of the machine. Not even the engineer on duty knew that - hardly surprising as he had received no training and had never even read the machine manual. When the fire brigade arrived he assured them there was no access, leaving them to hack through the steel drum by force. By the time they broke in, Mr. Clegg was dead.

Yesterday, Bournemouth Crown Court fined the firm £325,000 and ordered them to pay £16,500 costs.

That migrant flood, crime, and prohibition

Back in May, I asked readers to contact me if you saw any signs of a flood of Eastern European migrants after their failure to arrive. Despite, I'm sure, your best efforts to locate them I had concluded that somehow they must have been mislaid, all 2 million of 'em, by the tabs, Tories and 'kippers somewhere between Estonia and Dover. The figs are now out, and they suggest a net gain of 10,000 since May 1st, at least as far as the worker registration scheme goes. link But an important point is revealed by the Guardian story in that link, and that is the convergence of the legal and illegal job markets. This is a very serious factor for everyone who has opposed the Asylum Cry, as it breaks down one of our best arguments. I usually argue that anti-immigrant policies never work in the sense of preventing immigration - even on an island like the UK, people still turn up - but do have the effect of creating a criminal industry in people-trafficking. The demand and supply remain, and cutting off the legal routes transfers it to the illegal routes. This means that the immigrants who do arrive end up working in fearful conditions in a criminal environment. The smuggling industry grows and demands more and money from its passengers, and after a certain point it starts to vertically integrate with the low-end of the labour market.

Those employers who are willing to take on people whose discovery could get them nicked are likely also to be willing to pay them peanuts, extort "deposits", "fees", "repayments" and a pornographic catalogue of other exactions from them, welsh on them, and resort to violence or blackmail if they resist. The smuggler gangs will be only too happy to discipline them for a fee. Ordnung muss sein, and a bigger organisation always seeks to control its environment. That means securing the end market by linking up with employers and agencies. Going into the gangerman business yourself is the next stage, as it keeps as much profit as possible in-house as well as laying a foundation for going legit, should it become necessary. It's a whole new world of criminality.

The counter, I usually argue, is to increase legal migration - starve the beast, as they say. Who would get involved with this scum if there was any alternative? But this story suggests that there is no longer an alternative, even with full freedom of movement in the EU.
"Richard Kowalski agreed, adding that many Poles he knows have been duped while looking for work. He said: "Some of the ads are from people who lie about money. They are stealing money and for two or three weeks promising money."
In particular, he says his friends have become wary of jobs for food packing at the airport. "They are working one week and they don't get paid, they [employers] say that is deposit. Working another week they say bosses don't come with the money. It's like that, they just don't pay."
Although Mr. Kowalski and his fellows are now legal and, according to our solemn obligations in the EU treaties, should enjoy the same employment protections as the rest of us (there are no transitional arrangements or opt-outs on this), they are getting the same mistreatment as the Chinese of Morecambe Bay. The same features come up again and again in this story, and they are the same ones I just described...
"dealing with unscrupulous landlords and Polish thugs trying to steal his passport, and enduring back breaking building work at £3.50 an hour."
"When they do promise £40 a day, the end of the week brings just £100, a shrug of the shoulders and a "maybe we can pay you more next week""
The culture of reliance on illegal labour, and the criminal structure around it, are infecting the economy. The same features - welshing, exploitation, cooperation of employers, immigrant gangsters and smugglers - are appearing in the legal world. Is it too much to suggest that the tough line policies of the last decade have led to a criminalisation or barbarisation of parts of the "legitimate" economy?

Yes, Minister! Public service productivity

The BBC achieved a small triumph last night when it managed to follow a repeated Yes, Minister episode from 1981 concerning a hospital with no patients with a Newsnight special on the difficulty of measuring public-sector productivity and the temptation for politicians to exploit this by using dodgy figures. This is something the Ranter touches on quite frequently, especially when Oliver "Chubby" Letwin is concerned. (Note - I've given him Roy "Chubby" Brown's nickname not least because he'd look better in Roy's famous helmet.) Astonishingly enough, PMQs today was all about public service productivity figures.

The basic problem, of course, is of valuing a non-marketed product and of measuring its quality. This is illustrated by the Teacher's Fallacy - if you measure the labour productivity of a school by the throughput of pupils over the number of teacher hours, the productivity figure goes up the more kids you stuff into each class. But no-one in the world thinks that increasing class sizes does the children anything other than a power of bad. Obviously the missing dimension is quality. Grades are one measure, but the problem arises of linking this to expense (either on teachers or on goods), even without considering the problem of comparing widely varying schools. The vacuity of most statistics on these issues gives loads of scope for the obfuscation we discussed on here a while ago. Newsnight picked up on this, pointing out Chubby Letwin's love of comparing irrevelancies - the Department for Work and Pensions being as big as Sheffield, for example. On that one, Chubby was pinged with the obvious question as to which town it should be as big as. He replied that suggesting a city would be "invidious", which begged the question why he did it.

All in all, the juxtaposition went a long way to reminding me how much of politics is ritualised and never changes at all. Some things do. Yes, Minister's scriptwriters were working in the late-70s/early-80s cuts culture and the row was about a new hospital with 500 staff and no patients. The principle holds.

MS patents skin networking

It is reported that Microsoft has patented technology for networking mobile electronic devices through the user's skin. Gear like PDAs, phones etc would communicate by using the skin's electrical conductivity. Further applications could supposedly include producing power for such devices from your movements, rather like a self-winding watch, and even displaying information on the skin.

All very sci-fi, but the problem is obvious. Just wait for the Microsoft security holes in this system to come out, probably when some bunch of Russian students with time on their hands develop a hack that makes you come...out, or streams porn ads on your forehead. At least it will be a great new excuse, though. "How can I ever make it up to you, my love...I swear I must have opened an e-mail attachment or something.." "Your Honour, my client contends that his skin network was hacked by person or persons unknown, who gained control of his movements and literally forced him to commit this bestial act.."

Arthur C. Clarke famously said that sufficiently advanced technology was indistinguishable from magic. A corollary might be that sufficiently unwise technology is indistinguishable from paranoid fantasy.

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

Helicopters, horses, Martin van Creveld - what can it all mean?

Numerous reports in the main media suggest that the Ministry of Defence is going to come out very badly in the current public spending round (yes, I know it's not called that any more). In so far as the leaks agree, they seem to be suggesting a 1% budget increase. Whether this is real terms or cash terms is not clear. Even in the best case assumption that it is a real terms figure, though, it will still be a serious cuts-demanding crisis. After all, there's that Iraq thing to pay for, not to mention the astonishing cost of transition from cash to resource accounting (accounting for the notional Treasury capital charge hits the MoD savagely, since by its nature it has huge stocks of materiel that earn no income and stand still until called on although they are indispensable). And this is before we get to those BAe cost overruns on all the Forces' new stuff.

The effects are largely unknown. Much of the media reporting must be treated as radioactive and handled with tongs, especially that found in the Daily Telegraph as this is part of the routine of defence politics. The Torygraph, although it maintains one of the bigger specialist staffs on military issues, seems to have absolutely no ability to see when it is being used. Constantly, the Tele's "defence sources"' latest goss/political spin is printed without question - I've lost count of the times they have reported in frenzied terms on the armed forces being handed over in their entirety to "Europe", on gigantic cuts that never happened, or actual military operations that turned out to be nonsense. I recall the Sunday Tele headlining with a supposed British airborne landing on Kabul airport in the autumn of 2001 and stating not only which unit (2 Para) would land but also the tactics to be employed (an airlanding (TALO) rather than parachuting). Needless to say it just didn't happen, perhaps fortunately given the Telegraph's security fart. It is a well worn tradition that whenever any change or consideration of anything to do with defence is possible, all the armed forces' interest groups run off to brief the Times or Torygraph in bloodcurdling terms. It is almost as traditional that it all turns out to be shite. You would think they'd learn. However, getting back on the topic, some regularities are apparent.

Everyone seems to expect swingeing personnel cuts and the disappearance of several army regiments and possibly either ships or RAF units. Worst casers suggest that an entire aircraft type, HMS Ark Royal, and four infantry battalions might go - but this must be treated as above. The justification for cuts if/when they come is exactly the same as the justification for the government's whole defence policy, although policy has changed. New technology is meant to stand in for armour and numbers. By this, we really mean the Westland-assembled version of the AH64D Apache helicopter. When they speak of deployability and lightness, they mean relying more on attack helicopters for tasks usually given to tanks or artillery. (There are many other equipment programmes grouped under this heading, but with the exception of the Bowman communications system most are looking at cuts.) Originally, this was seen as a way of enabling the forces to respond to threats that might come from anywhere, now that the Cold War is gone. Now, though, with the various supporting schemes going and the rank and file being cut, it is seen as a cureall to fill gaps cheaply.

Apaches in the UK have had some problems, mostly due to the crappy PFI deal for pilot training. But there is a more fundamental problem. Relying on a UK Air Assault or "Air Cav" capability means a much bigger reliance on many more choppers and fancier ones. And this is where we get to the horses. It's no longer an original statement that the military enjoy a horse/helicopter analogy. The US Army's decision to make the 1st Cavalry Division the first air-assault division helped, but there are deeper reasons - the drama and speed involved and the proliferating entourage of specialist trades, as with the cavalry, boosts an image of elite dash and institutional pull. That isn't the point, though. Martin van Creveld's Supplying War reminded the world of a lost point about the campaigns of the horse-drawn world - the dominance of fodder. As a horse eats roughly 10 times as much as a man by weight, fodder was the most difficult item of supply to obtain. Just putting the horses to grass worked for a day, but an army would eat out the land in a weekend. And after all, transporting fodder meant even more horses.

Helicopters show signs of being the horses of today. In the war against Iraq, at times the US Army's Apaches required one C-17 load for each helicopter each day. This is bad enough, but attack helicopters are meant to operate very close to the fighting, using Forward Arming and Refuelling Points (FARPS) placed as far forward as possible to maximise the time each chopper spent in the target area. You can't expect to land a C-17 there. The stores must be forwarded by road transport, by C-130 if possible, or at worst by support helicopters (who of course suck up logistic resources too). The bill is astronomical and the number of vulnerable groups of technicians and kit, not to mention vulnerable transport, huge. In the Falklands, the main constraint on British operations by land was the lack of support helicopter capacity as there was no other serious overland transport. Many of the choppers went down aboard Atlantic Conveyor to worsen the problem. When, however, late in the war a sufficiency of lift was provided (with the arrival of more aboard Atlantic Causeway and the conversion of antisubmarine Sea Kings), a new problem was created - suddenly the navy faced a struggle to keep up[ as the helicopters "drank incredible quantities of fuel" in the words of Commodore Michael Clapp. After all, fuel had to be handled through improvised gear at San Carlos because the fuel handling gear had been sunk with Conveyor, and anyway fuel meant bringing tankers into the danger area.

Moral? Geoff Hoon should resign. Funny, I seem to have said that almost daily.

Thursday, July 01, 2004

Is this the explanation for the Bout scandal?

The Financial Times reports that US counter-terrorist efforts in West Africa are being strengthened after increased scrutiny of the former Liberian dictator Charles Taylor's alleged links with Hezbollah and al-Qa'ida. Reportedly, more staff have been assigned to help in financial investigations there, and a further legal attache (a FBI representative) is to be appointed. The September 11th commission surprised various people when it decided that al-Qa'ida did not finance itself through the illicit diamond trade, especially, it seems, the FBI itself and the Congressional committee that watches it:
A Federal Bureau of Investigation team this year found "pretty definite" evidence of a link between al-Qaeda operatives and the smuggling of Sierra Leonean diamonds, according to the head of the House of Representatives subcommittee that oversees the FBI. In an interview, Frank Wolf, chairman of the House commerce-justice-state and the judiciary appropriations subcommittee, expressed surprise at the September 11 committee's scepticism about the tie and said he would check that it had access to FBI reports on the issue.

Mr Wolf said he asked the FBI team to visit Liberia to investigate concerns about alleged dealings in diamonds by radical Islamic groups groups such as Hizbollah in Lebanon. The investigation established that al-Qaeda operatives visited Liberia to buy diamonds, although Mr Wolf warned that confidentiality laws prevented him from giving details.

"I can tell you that, to my satisfaction, there is a connection to al-Qaeda," Mr Wolf said. "Now the question is how much, how extensively, is it still going on?"
This may yet reveal important facts on the Viktor Bout scandal, as reported here back in May. To recap, it emerged that the well-known arms trafficker had been working for the US in some connection with Iraq, as well as his more usual clients (Charles Taylor, UNITA, various Congolese factions, Rwanda, the Taliban). The big question was the why, of course, which remains mysterious. The new development is the suggestion that Charles Taylor, whose regime in Liberia was pretty much dependent on the Bout organisation to export diamonds and timber and import armaments for its numerous wars, had links with the US of a nature that could have led to a blind eye being turned to terrorist-related activities there.
The text mentions that the al-Qa'ida representatives were in town during the same period as the Liberian shipping registry was sending huge sums of money to San Air, one of Bout's operations with a base in Texas (see here). Or, you could put it this way!
"Alex Yearsley, of London-based Global Witness, alleges that the CIA and FBI long had tried to publicly minimize links between conflict diamonds and Islamic militant groups, including al-Qaida. The U.S. security agents feared exposure of their own longtime links with Charles Taylor, the ousted Liberian leader who played a main role in West Africa's insurgencies and blood diamond trade, Yearsley said. Taylor received CIA payments until January 2001, Yearsley claimed in a telephone interview."
Laura Rozen quotes this crucial par from the FT, but careful readers will spot that it's missing from the FT article. In fact, everything after Yearsley's first sentence calling for a full report to be published has been snipped. The current version has only the following ultra-diplomatic formulation:
"Some observers have suggested the US is reluctant to admit that it failed to spot links between al-Qaeda and Liberia before the September 11 attacks."

I suppose it vanished into the legal department. Hmm....

Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Tuesday, June 29, 2004

Bush vs Chirac, and the Turks

At the NATO summit, George W. Bush made time for a demarche on the subject of Turkish membership of the EU, which angered Jacques Chirac. Chirac responded that
"It's as if I was advising the US on how they should manage their relations with Mexico."
Indeed. I am sure both the Turks and the French conservatives I am sure he was thinking of will appreciate the analogy. France = the US, Turkey = Mexico. So you're all dirty thieving wetbacks. How communautaire and solidariste.

We've been here before

Well, that's supposedly it. Calamity Paul Bremer handed over Iraq two days early and was out of the country the same night. If anyone thinks this is anything else than a response to some really ugly intelligence warning about (part-)independence day, they must be astonishingly naive. As Mountbatten's chief of staff put it about the decision to bring Indian independence forward by a year, "in the spring of 1947 India was a ship on fire with ammunition in the hold." Well, the trick worked in so far as Bremer's chopper to the airport and C-130 out of theatre got away. For the rest, we shall see. Allawi's official residence, I see, is an old-regime guest house next to Saddam's palace. He has to be a guest because, although the CPA has "ceased to exist" the Yanks still need the whole thing for office space. You might have thought that, now all their administrative or executive functions are naturally to be given back to the Iraqis, they wouldn't need so much office space. Obviously there's something there I am too stupid to get. Bremer has managed to get through the appointment of the new intelligence chief and national security adviser on five year terms, just in case Allawi loses the election. And they've already picked the election commission too.

A tiresome fake, in short, rather like the note handed to Bush at the NATO summit informing him of the ceremony and oh-so-casually scribbled over "let freedom reign". Clearly a cheap PR stunt, as it was spelt correctly. Meanwhile, the real news was that a US soldier, Specialist Keith Maupin, was killed after being taken hostage. A US Marine is also currently captive. And a British soldier, Gordon Gobbie, a 19 year old private from Glasgow in the Royal Highland Fusiliers, was blown to bits. Naturally he wasn't there, as Iraq is now free and sovereign, nor was he really killed, as it is a country at peace.

Tech Active report

So, I did indeed attend Tech Active yesterday. Key points of the discussion, held in the all-white but strangly ransacked looking premises of the Stanhope Centre, covered a wide range of problems related to political campaigning and technology. A curious crowd, made up of equal parts tech-hipster/German video artist types in painfully fashionable (but ugly) late 70s threads and pale, pudgy deep geeks in painfully unfashionable (but ugly) sweaters. The Random Reality blogger (see sidebar) was there, but I somehow failed to spot him.

Talking points: the crucial importance of technocratic as opposed to legislative organisations. Cory Doctorow made this point with regard to the World Intellectual Property Organisation, the OECD and ICAO. These standard-setting bodies have frequently been used to push through measures that are shot down by national democracies - if you can get it written into the international standard, then it will either be possible to present it as inevitable or slip it through in unglamourous regulations, a process described as "policy laundering". Another form of policy laundering is, of course, transferring it into another context. Typical of this are the measures that were attached to security or defence related legislation - one third of the Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001, for example, deals with technology issues. Alternatively, technocratisation gets things off the main political agenda.

Gus Hosein of the LSE and Privacy International, who raised the ATCSA 2001 point above, criticised civil society organisations heavily on a variety of grounds - disunity, duplication, competition, self-seeking, inaction, national divides and the possibility of fake NGOs. (I referred to the post below concerning Russian attempts to recruit loyal NGOS.) There was a further issue concerning the divide between traditional campaigning groups, who tend to have the advantage of perspective, membership base and experience but are web-ignorant, and techie groups blind to real world issues. Doctorow produced an alternative to this critique in the twin problems of "nerd fatalism" (if they want to read my mail they'll do it anyway) and "nerd determinism" (our superior technology will eventually destroy them). Despite being opposite to each other, the effect is the same - inaction/apathy. Doctorow and Hosein agreed that a "rich ecosystem" of different tactics was needed to overcome these splits.

Hosein pointed out another form of context shifting or policy laundering with reference to the case of a schoolboy whose parents discovered he was to be fingerprinted to use the library, and to border control - either "Get them while they're young" or "Get them while they're foreign". I brought up the education cards plan I covered back in May, which still seems to evade much scrutiny. Conclusions, finally, were that everyone agreed that the internet is a force multiplier for traditional campaigning, however there was little consensus on whether or not it has any political role of its own.

All in all, it was a fascinating couple of hours. The people I promised links to will get them today.

Monday, June 28, 2004

Sunday, June 27, 2004

Allawi and those "models of democracy"

I know it's terribly eurocentric and arrogant to complain about this sort of thing, and we should be tolerant of alternative cultural values, but is anyone else worried by Iyad Allawi's assertion that "Iraqi democracy should not be a replica of models imported from America, Britain or any other country"? Now, this is all very well, but democracy itself was imported into most democracies. The word is Greek, and the theory is to a large extent drawn from the French and English revolutions, the Roman republic, and the various city states of the Renaissance. It's true that each country that has created a democracy in the fairly narrow sense has worked out its own practice of democracy, but the stockpile of ideas has a definite history of its own.

We have heard a lot about a whole range of countries finding their own way to democracy and how we should not impose our values on them. Remember "Asian values"? "Guided democracy"? "People's democracy"? Even Speer's notion of "Germanic democracy", which you can probably guess? What they all had in common was that they weren't particularly democratic, being variations either on autocracy or on bureaucratic totalitarianism. Either The Party or The Big Boss was in charge, ruling in the first version through a modern police state (either fascist or Leninist) or in the second through a mixture of clientelism and control of the army (in a word, dictatorship). Allawi's emerging policy certainly seems to be going that way, what with the idea of declaring martial law and increasing signs that he intends to co-opt the more conservative insurgents. After all, if Iraq's future state is to be based on Iraqi models, there's a choice of either a monarchy based on the army and the manipulation of tribal clienteles or a totalitarian party-state based on surveillance and exemplary terror. Great.

What will Allawi's rule look like? Probably an uneasy mixture of trying to look western in Baghdad under the noses of world opinion and of the Americans, with lots of ICDC and police and a reconstructed secret police behind the scenes, whilst the countryside will be run on what might be called the Fallujah model, a coalition of the more conservative insurgent leaders and ex-Ba'athis. (Fallujah seems to be evolving into a conservative-Islamist mosque state with old Ba'athi generals providing the muscle, in fact the insurgents' de facto capital as I predicted some time ago. Juan Cole)

It's all rather strange when you think that it's the neo cons who usually talk about that "soft racism of low expectations". But here's the kicker - the new state they are creating in Iraq is exactly the kind of dictatorship that their criticism of the Left assumes we think is all the Iraqis can achieve.

Just when do you become a tyrant?

Kremlin Looking for Loyal NGOs

It is reported that the Russian government is trying to build up a base of friendly NGOs as a counterweight to the numerous campaign groups that are about the only effective opposition left in Russia. First question - is an NGO created to be nice to the Kremlin "nongovernmental" in any way? Given the way in which fake democracy seems to be the up-and-coming form of state, should we perhaps invent a new term to describe a fake NGO? Quango, of course, stands for quasi-autonomous non-governmental organisation, but it's not quite the same thing. A quango usually has some sort of administrative or scrutiny function, and the term is specifically British. OSIOG, perhaps - Organisation Supposedly Independent of Government? What about False Undertaking Created by King's Organisations For Fronts? Or FRont Organisation Not to be Trusted?

It's all very Soviet, harking back to the days of fraternal delegations and world congresses for this, that and the other, usually with one KGB-funded and one CIA-funded body for each worthy subject. (One never hears of a World Congress for War.) But that's hardly surprising, when you note this par:
"Most of the organizations that took part in Tuesday's meeting are unknown to human rights activists, and those that are known tend to have roots in Soviet times. For example, one of the participants, the Federation of Peace and Agreement, is the successor to the Soviet Committee for Peace Defense, founded in 1949. It was members of this group who traveled to the West in the early perestroika years, in 1986 and 1987, to speak about improvements in human rights. The organization is now involved in the vague task of defending peace in the world, according to its web site."
Indeed. I suppose the world in that does not include Chechnya, seeing as the excluded from Mr. Lavrov's meeting include all the orgs that have spent the last few years publicising the real dirt about the war there. Sounds to me like one of those clubs whose greatest compliment is to refuse you membership. Anyone for a Salon des Refuses?

Fatal attack on Chinese in Afghan province "not terrorism," minister says

CNEWS:Fatal attack on Chinese in Afghan province "not terrorism," minister says

Canadian news site reports that the bombing of a peacekeeping force vehicle and the murder of some 11 Chinese workers in northern Afghanistan was "not terrorism". These supposed non-attacks non-occurred in Kunduz on the 10th fo June. Kunduz, significantly, is the first town outside Kabul to get a detachment of ISAF peacekeepers, in this case German troops. (You know, those evil, corrupt, weak on terrorism Germans.) But - according to the Afghan Interior Minister - this wasn't terrorism, but perhaps "competition between rival companies". Companies in what business? This sounds more like the infamous incident when two Kandahari Taliban leaders shot it out in tanks to settle a dispute over their favourite dancing boy. What with things like this "non-terrorist" massacre and Iraqi PM Allawi's statement that models of democracy "imported from other countries" can't apply to Iraq, our world democratic crusade is clearly doing fine.

First Clues on UKIP's real policy

What You Can Get Away With - Nick Barlow's weblog

It appears that UKIP's Nick Croucher has very clear ideas on the content of that "free trade agreement" they think we could have with the EU in the event of withdrawal. Apparently he's only going "to Europe" (eh? he's standing on it!) in order to fill the back of his 4x4 with "cheap fags and booze". What a surprise. Ukipper drives gas guzzler, avoids taxes. Now, however, we can begin to pencil in some detail for that agreement on the basis of the 'kippers' own behaviour. Clearly, there would be no possibility of tobacco or alcohol sales being subject either to the EU external tariff or to the old UK Customs regime (one bottle of spirits, 25 mechanical lighters and how much perfume was it?). After all, that would seriously harm our Nick's booze cruises. And any restriction on the movement of capital or land ownership is clearly out given Kilroy Slick's Portuguese hacienda.

So - no possibility of reimposing duty on imports of drink and fags. Could have some consequences for their budget proposals. But so long as Nick gets his cheap Marlboros and piss-weak Saint Omer beer multipacks from the East Enders Hypermarket, all is good...

Thursday, June 24, 2004

Nanniebots - eventually a test

Those Nanniebots from the spring have been back in the news. Andy Pryke was able to take part in a supposed test of the system at Jim Wightman's place, and discovered that the replies it produced were identical to those from a much older AI called ALICE. He also offered to produce the source code, but was kiboshed by a (convenient?) power cut before he could load a CD he said contained it.

Thanks to Ray Girvan, Waxy, for keeping on the story. BTW, I lost the link to Ray's blog in a site recovery that went wrong in early May and I've only just realised - sorry.

Tuesday, June 22, 2004

Melanie Phillips - she's not different, she's special!

Last night's TV. What a great subject for a blog post.

Newsnight last night was taken up by the BBC's favourite post-Hutton pastime - broadcasting earnest discussions of its own failings. On the panel was Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips, who had a number of curious things to say about Andrew Gilligan, reporting and her own product. Having retrospectively castigated him at length for mixing fact and opinion, she was taken to task by the presenter over statements in her own work regarding the European constitution. These, it was argued, were matters of opinion presented as fact or, at least, as equivalent to fact. She replied that this was all right because she "was entirely confident" of them.

Well, Mr. Gilligan was entirely confident of his report, too. And, after all, where are the weapons? But this, of course, was treacherous mendacity only permitted to be broadcast by the bias she stated was inherent in all facets of the BBC's output, especially the choice of interviewees (Eh?). Now, I remember that in my first year at university a really nasty put-down went the rounds that had obviously been adapted from some well-meaning effort to kibosh prejudice against the disabled. After someone had recounted someone else's brain fart, you put on a pink voice and replied "I'm not different, I'm special!" Quite clearly, the criteria that apply to Gilligan don't apply to Phillips. She's not different - you get the rest...

UK/Iranian frontier incident

As heavily reported, the Iranians have seized three speed boats belonging to the Royal Naval party in southern Iraq after they allegedly crossed the border between Iran and Iraq. The people involved are engaged in setting up an Iraqi river police for the area (chalk up another bunch of gunmen to us! I hope I'm being too cynical), as well as attempting to catch smugglers in the Shatt al-Arab and the delta. It's the sort of thing that follows a pattern - hyperventilation all round and impressed announcements that those involved had "maps!" and "weapons!" as if that was surprising. And they are always "commandos". It was much the same when the Spanish police briefly arrested a group of supposed SAS personnel travelling by road to Gibraltar. They didn't have any weapons, it turned out - just maps and warry-looking rucksacks, but it didn't stop them from being identified on TV.

Numerous blogs are speculating that there is some link with the continuing diplomacy over Iranian nuclear ambitions, but I doubt there is any connection. This is a kind of diplomatic event that is even more ritualised than most, and if a NATO and EU partner state behaves in exactly the same way when they find someone carrying a MoD Form 90 identity card, it's only to be expected that Iran would. Iranian state TV says they will be "prosecuted" but this is likely for domestic consumption only. I predict that this will be resolved and largely forgotten within the Ali Campbell nine days' deadline.

More broadly, I don't really buy in to the idea that Iran is terrified by the occupation of Iraq. I'm sure they are intelligent enough to judge by capabilities, not by flags stuck in a map, and the US army camped in Iraq is not in a position to invade anywhere when all its efforts are absorbed in local security. The US would need enough troops to win in Iran plus an occupation force capable of covering the rear in Iraq, and at a time of serious overstretch it just doesn't happen. Add to that the fact that Iran can press the Shia button and set the south-central sector on fire at any time and I suspect they sleep well.

Sunday, June 20, 2004

What is wrong with these people?

So - having besieged Fallujah for weeks without success, you hand it over to a new and rather vague "Fallujah Brigade" in the hope that they will be less provocative (with the subtext that it's a Kosovo Protection Corps-style way of incorporating the gunmen into something quasi-legitimate). Then, without apparently considering any further, you call in an airstrike on a house in the middle of the city, killing 22.

What kind of sense is this supposed to make? How are the Fallujah Brigade meant to even survive if their ally tries to make arrests with a 500lb bomb in their patch? The retaliation will come and it will come right to them, if not from within their own ranks. And what then? The risk in giving up the siege once it started was always that it would validate the insurgents' control of the area, giving them or a front for them effective power there. If the Brigade dissolves, will the Marines be called back in? And what is the point of doing what is in effect an arrest operation with an F-16? Surely this could have been achieved quietly, simply and without unnecessary destruction by sending a truckload of squaddies around to the address to arrest the people concerned and search the place? That way, of course, there would also be the benefit of whatever information might be obtained by searching the building. It all reminds me of Operation Iron Hammer and the mad firing of an ATACMS missile at a house 120 miles away.

The Withnail Theory of Terrorism

The mighty Talking Points Memo has an interview with Anonymous, the spook author of Imperial Hubris, the book in which he bashes Bush's counterterrorist policy comprehensively. TPM and Anon discuss Saudi Arabia (or next month's outrage, as I've decided to call it) and establish that al-Qa'ida apparently operates on the principles laid down in Withnail and I in the scene where Withnail is reading the newspaper. Let us recap:
WITHNAIL: This vast head like a cannonball...is now considered sane. Jeff Wode is feeling better! And is now ready to step back into society and start tossing his orb about!....(pensively)Imagine the size of his balls....(suddenly)Imagine getting into a fight with the fucker!

MARWOOD(weakly): Please. I don't feel well.

WITHNAIL: That's what you'd say. But that wouldn't wash with Jeff. He'd probably like a bit of pleading. Adds spice to it! In fact, he'd probably tell you what he was gonna do to you....before he did it! Hmmm...(mimicing Wode)I'm going to pull your head off. (pleading)Please. Please, don't pull my head off. (Wode again)I'm going to pull your head off - because I don't like your head!

Compare:
"Which perhaps is the most important trademark for al-Qaeda: they tell you what they’re going to do and then they do it."
Yes, I know it's bad taste, but the chance to think of al-Qa'ida as the Jeff Wodes of today is too good to miss.

Saturday, June 19, 2004

Things are getting better in Iraq

Just not for our side.



The chart shows numbers of "significant activities" by insurgents. Blue line is the daily total, red is the moving average. From Global Security

Dancing in the Green Zone

In the week that Kabul's first gastropub opened for business, Phil Carter's Intel Dump has a great post on the bar scene that has developed inside the walls of the Baghdad Green Zone. Apparently, the Zone's hottest ticket is the CIA disco. Complete with mirrorball and (sprung I hope) dance floor.
"The plushest tavern is the CIA's rattan furnished watering hole, known as the ''OGA bar.'' OGA stands for ''Other Government Agency,'' the CIA's low-key moniker. The OGA bar has a dance floor with a revolving mirrored disco ball and a game room. It is open to outsiders by invitation only. Disgruntled CPA employees who haven't wangled invites complain that the CIA favors women guests."


I suppose the company from The Company must be amusing as well. "So, how do you get into the interrogation contracting business then?" Those mysterious prisoners who were kept off the Abu Ghraibh roll call were officially the responsibility of "OGAs". It reminds me of the Manic Street Preachers' song "Tsunami". ("Disco dancing with the rapists/Your only crime was silence..") Of course, the character in the song was in a high-security psychiatric hospital. Only pure coincidence can possibly have led me to associate six thousand deluded and potentially violent individuals isolated from the outside world by massive security barriers with an asylum. Or did I mean the other way round?

Friday, June 18, 2004

Horror! I missed the blog's birthday!

The Yorkshire Ranter was one year old on the 10th of June. And I failed to mark blogday in any signal fashion. Shame, shame, shame

Al-Qaida videos turn up in hacked server

Der Standard is reporting that a video of Paul Johnson, the Lockheed engineer being held hostage by al-Qa'ida, has turned up on a server belonging to a surveying firm in California. The paper referred to a German techie news site, Heise Online, which in turn referred to this story from Der Spiegel. The firm in question, Silicon Valley Surveying Inc., knew nothing until links to the video began appearing on jihadi bulletin boards (there's a depressing phrase) and the server fell over under a deluge of traffic. Apparently the film and much more stuff was placed in a subdirectory on SVS's server. Very few anglophone news sources have covered this so far for some reason. (Google News, Technorati Breaking News)

This is interesting, as it suggests for the first time that hacking has become an al-Qa'ida technique (how else did they get their hands on the film?). And that was one of the possible triggers for serious trouble Gwyn Prins mentioned in The Heart of War, a book everyone ought to read.

Privatised beatings - a criminal charge at last

Civilian Charged In Beating of Afghan Detainee (washingtonpost.com)

A privately employed interrogator has been charged with assault over the case of an Afghan man who was beaten to death during three days of interrogation. According to a "source", the CIA men then tried to blame the army:
"Immediately after Wali's death, he said, the CIA personnel left the base by helicopter. The soldier later learned that the CIA station chief in Kabul had been told that Special Forces troops had killed the man, according to the military source and an official in Washington. When the Special Forces team threatened to make the case public, the military source said, the CIA personnel admitted what had happened. An intelligence official in Washington yesterday called that allegation "flat wrong"."
Apparently this chap was thrown out of the police in 1990 after being charged with a violent offence. Damn, they really know how to recruit.

Wednesday, June 16, 2004

Official - ASLEF president hit woman, thumped gen sec

Mind you, this is funny enough to be worth blogging. The TUC's report into the drunken brawl at the ASLEF barbecue is out.
"After about half an hour the general secretary physically removed the president from the decking on which the bar becue had taken place," says the report.

"The general secretary was in the process of taking the president towards the back door at No 7 Arkwright Road [union-owned flats] when they met Ms Atkinson, who was at the time returning from the bathroom.

"The president struck Ms Atkinson on the mouth as she attempted to pass by him."

Unpleasant behaviour. I'm sure the politics had something to do with it, but it's no surprise that
"The panel uncovered "a very drink and pub-related culture within Aslef" and admitted that "memories may have been clouded by alcohol"."

Link

Chips are a vegetable

The US Department of Agriculture is obviously in mourning for Ronald Reagan, as they have acquired a federal judge's ruling that chips - in fact, chips in *batter* - may be considered a vegetable.

It seems, sadly, that despite the Reagan nostalgia (when ketchup was officially a vegetable for school dinners) this only applies to commercial issues and not to nutrition. Sorry, I've been farting around with javascript for hours and I'm not in the mood to post more.

Monday, June 14, 2004

That UKIP surge in full

17% of a 40% turnout equals a thick 6.8% of the electorate. Get real.

It only gets worse. Much worse

How much worse can it get? Seymour Hersh, who broke the torture scandal in the first place, has this to say(via
Brad DeLong):
"He said that after he broke Abu Ghraib people are coming out of the woodwork to tell him this stuff. He said he had seen all the Abu Ghraib pictures. He said, "You haven't begun to see evil..." then trailed off. He said, "horrible things done to children of women prisoners, as the cameras run."

He looked frightened.


Can it get worse? Can it get better? Well, it seems that one of the torturers is planning to call Rumsfeld, Cambone, Wolfowitz, Lt.Gen. Sanchez, and the White House general counsel. I wonder if that last one explains why Bush needs lawyers of his own? After all, when your official legal advisers sign something like
this saying that (in effect) it is quite all right to inflict "physical pain equivalent to major organ failure" so long as the President says so ("We find that in the circumstances of the current war against al-Qai'da and its allies, prosecution under section 2340A may be barred because enforcement of the statute would represent unconstitutional infringement of the President's authority to conduct war") you might find it wouldn't help your own defence, no? And won't it be ironic if - if I read the footnotes to that correctly - one of the key statutes under which torturers might be prosecuted is the Patriot Act!

Sunday, June 13, 2004

When Voters Attack

To my horror I see I was very, very wrong about the local elections, specifically the BNP contribution. Looks like I spoke too soon. Poor Bradford will have to put up with some four fascists. Worst of all, one of them was elected for Keighley West! This is a shocker, as back in the riot summer of 2001 when northern towns were burning with the help of the BNPers, Keighley remained calm - despite being almost the design classic of a northern BNP target, a Pennine mill town with high unemployment, a large Asian population and a tradition of Labour Party dominance and only a few miles over the dales from Burnley.

But now I suppose Kly will just have to suffer, especially as there's another paki-basher next door in Worth Valley. Sithee, Tony, thas allus bin a twat, but this'ere tops the bloody lot. Tha wants to get thi thumb outer thi arse an bugger off back to wheer thi bloody cum from fore I bray yer! (It's reet pity there's no HTML tag for "mark this text Yorkshire".)

I'm off to see if I can work up some enthusiasm for this war. Bastards.

Friday, June 11, 2004

Reports from a funeral. Not that one

Guardian Unlimited Politics | Special Reports | Election blow for Labour

Still the horrors pour in. A good example of the rare case when Field Marshal Haig was wrong about "the situation never being as good or bad as first reports indicate". The whipping is now up to 330 seats lost. Ouch! Pleasantly, though, it seems that the widely advertised far-right surge has vanished: the BNP lost 3 out of 5 seats, UKIP got a huge 2. Their main achievement seems to have been walloping an ANL protestor and getting arrested.

Popular creativity

On my way to Big London yesterday, sitting in a slow train (and on South West Trains that's really slow). About Hounslow way a school trip of girls was loaded into the carriage. Or should that be poured? I feared the worst and prepared to go into mindless tube mode, eyes blank, brain emptier, but they didn't do anything too noisy.

Until a black bloke with dreads got on the train. They decided to sing him their own version of Outkast's Hey Ya!. In three part harmony. They kept it up until the last verse, when they broke up in giggles and began discussing their performance. (Hmm, reflexive practice in a learning organisation!) Tech note - one of them broadcast the whole thing down a mobile phone to some pal somewhere. The chap ignored them completely, reading a tab with a headline something like Terror Wife Found Hanging.

Sorry about this excursion into personal blogging cliche. At least it wasn't about cats.

TBI - Resigning from the party

This is the text of my resignation from the Labour Party, more than a year ago today.

Alexander Harrowell
(address here)
08/05/03

Party No. B045893

Dear General Secretary,

One week ago I decided to destroy my Labour Party membership card and cancel my subscription. This letter is intended to be a formal statement of resignation, which should also help to make clear the reasons why I have resigned. I believe that, in a wide variety of ways, the Government no longer maintains the principles or represents the interests of those who elected it. Neither has the Party’s behaviour in government been appropriate to the traditions of the Labour Movement.

Despite some appearances to the contrary, I feel that the Government has failed even to make a serious effort to resolve the most important of our socio-economic problems – those being deep inequality, industrial failure, and a failure of culture expressed in the ugly, joyless, crime-ridden spaces of modern British towns. We have not even begun to tackle the Thatcher society, defined broadly as education for the rich, representation for Southern finance as opposed to Northern industry and labour, perverse anti-Europeanism, and an economically distorting property obsession. We will all live in windswept, ugly TV suburbs of tawdry yellow bricks, slaving in third-rate PFI businesses to keep the property bubble going, so we can buy imports and pretend to be Americans. Constant traffic on a million identically landscaped roundabouts poisons the air. Meanwhile, to keep us all happy, the Sun parrots whatever risible scares the Downing Street press office has fed it. It is Thatcher’s world, and it is yours.

Six months ago, I could still take pride in the successful return to Europe achieved by this government, a veritable diplomatic revolution compared with the mendacious and pathetic nonsense of John Major. Now this is gone. Joining the European single currency, the clearest possible move to identify Britain with the hope of a better world, now appears impossible due to the damage done by British acquiescence in Mr. Bush’s campaign against the institutions of the West. The achievement of the St. Malo declaration on European defence has also been thrown away, as evidenced by the recent summit of the weak in Brussels. Closer to home, we still have no evident policy to realise Mr. Gordon Brown’s frequent declarations of the need to close the productivity gap. Failure abounds, as does inaction. We have done very little to prepare for a renewable energy economy. The destruction of real, productive, growth-leading industries in favour of grubby City interests continues. Fancy accounting and PFIs enrich the dodgiest of property sharks and form the sharp end of Mr. Blair’s strange obsession with humiliating public sector workers.

Beyond policy, the smug immorality of the Cabinet has done much to drive me from the Party. Geoff Hoon’s vile recent performance is a case in point. The propaganda rant about supposed executions of British PoWs can only have been viciously cruel to the relatives of the dead men, whether true or not. If it was, as I suspect, propagandistic, it was disgusting. If it was the truth, then it was an outrageous breach of the Army’s covenant. I will not dwell on the appalling cluster-bomb remark, to avoid vomiting. The oh-so-convenient terrorist scares, the vicious pandering anti-French campaign, the refugee bullying – all these demonstrate a bankruptcy of principles. The deliberate assault on the weak is not the spirit of Socialism but of Fascism. (One may recall that according to Sidney and Beatrice Webb, the spirit of socialism is revolt.) I do not believe that the Government even attempts any more to act in favour of the powerless against the powerful, the only direction in which solutions to Britain’s problems lie. We are obsessed with creating tabloid stories of bullying to satisfy Tebbit-minded editors. The heart of the matter is the nasty clique around Mr. Blair (a potentially great Foreign Secretary who ruined himself by reading about John F. Kennedy) – or, as we may call it, the No. 10 Bad Ideas Task Force. I cannot see myself as a member under Blair or a Blair/Thatcher person such as Mr. Alan Milburn, Mr. David Blunkett, or Mr. Geoff Hoon. I resign from the Labour Party in order to live in truth as an independent socialist. To remain in it would be to take part in an organised lie.

Yours sincerely,



Alexander Harrowell

The Big Intervention - Time for Blair to go!

Well, they'd been plotting it for a while, but now the mobilisation order has come through. Tony Blair is no longer a viable option. The Labour Party is now the third placed party in Britain. The people have spoken and they have comprehensively dished the myth that Blair is still an election winner. If we don't want the Tories or continued Toryism in disguise, he has to go. Please click on the banner across the top and follow the instructions...

Wednesday, June 09, 2004

A chart that demonstrates that voting Republican is correlated with obesity

Is here. The degree to which each state voted for either Bush or Gore is plotted against the percentage of the population self-reporting obesity. There is a distinct correlation. This suggests a slogan or two - "Fat, Dumb and Happy? Vote Bush!" perhaps.

Thanks to King of Zembla

From the referrer log

The Ranter is the no.1 Google result for "monkey arrest frenchman yorkshire". And for "yorkshire wurlitzer". And no.8 for "quasi government in yorkshire". I could have sworn that I'd never used the word wurlitzer, but it seems that back last November I did.

But who the hell searched for "male belly bulging"? We are result number 12! I feared the worst, but most of the results concern either tropical fish or the tactics employed to get rid of a beer belly. Someone else was trying (as far as I know without success) to trace the dirty stories Alistair Campbell wrote for Forum magazine under the pseudonym "Riviera Gigolo". If you read this and you did track them down, were they any good? And I can understand searching for recipes or for "Lord Brocket fraud", but why both? And I certainly don't recall writing anything about Sir Clowdesley Shovell, who sailed the fleet into the Scilly Isles and was murdered by a wrecker after his jewels. But Shovell fans out there in user land keep rocking up.

Finally, the person who searched for "classical conservative thought" really had come to the wrong place.

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

On this day in 1954

Professor Alan Turing of Manchester University, founder of computer science and breaker of Nazi naval ciphers, died by his own hand after being threatened with jail and stripped of his security clearance because he was gay.

He ate an apple dosed with cyanide. In case you have ever wondered, Apple Computer's logo is a memorial to him.

How strange. As things went bad again in the Congo..

..one of Viktor Bout's old aeroplanes turned up next door in Rwanda. In a hurry, so will simply report that the Tupolev 154 that belonged to two of his operations, Mold-Transavia and Centrafricain, and was involved in the "she-guns" affair, is now apparently registered in Rwanda by something called "Regional International Air Services". Given the fact that the warring factions of eastern Congo have developed the habit of exporting via the UAE, this does not sound terribly good news. But somehow, not very surprising.

Update, 09/06/04
One of Bout's first operations was an airline called MoldTransavia, which operated out of Moldova. It featured in a wide variety of nefarious activity in Africa until Bout closed it down after its ownership became too well known. One of its aircraft, a Tu-154 of serial number 895, has now reappeared in the name of Regional International, based in Rwanda with the Rwandan registration 9XR-DU. Reportedly it is using Centrafricain's call sign. No wonder the war in the eastern Congo apparently re-declared itself.

Monday, June 07, 2004

The Bout contracts: slight return

I recently read up some useful information on how to interpret the designations of those fuel contracts for Viktor Bout's airlines. According to the DESC website, a DoDAAC beginning with "T" is one used to supply a charter or contractor on US Government service, or aircraft (or anything else) belonging to a foreign government when an agreement between the governments concerned exists. Basically, issuing a purchase agreement means that the fuel can be supplied reimbursably - that is, against future settlement by the company or organisation concerned rather than in cash. Now, the rules given show various examples of situations that might have offered a legitimate explanation for the deals. For example, fuel might be sold for cash to some other categories during a fuel shortage, provided that the need was essential, other sources had failed and the sale would not affect military readiness. Aircraft forced to land in emergency might be refuelled sufficiently to reach another source in some cases.

But the existence of the "T" agreement kiboshes these. This shows that regular arrangements to fuel up the aircraft had been made. The "T" indicates a non-Department of Defense customer. The "B" indicates a commercial customer. The "TC", by comparison to others, seems to indicate the UAE. The two digits clearly identify the individual contract. Which, as the deals are TBTCs 01-03, shows clearly that this was deliberate and lasting.

We still await an explanation.

A political climate does exist

A lot of the time, whatever the press say about the "atmosphere" or the "political climate" might seem to be a myth restricted to a few twerps somewhere in London. Surely, this is just what politicians say about each other and what journos write about them. Yesterday, though, it was concrete.

Police helicopters clattered constantly along the Thames. What was up? There seemed no obvious sign of disorder, and then the reason swam up. The UKIP were out for a boat trip in a small flotilla of hired tourist boats and one fisherman, draped with UKIP banners and dressed overall in every flag they could find except, of course, that one. As the sun came out, long after the anti-European convoy had passed downriver (strangely, towards continental Europe), a loudhailer bus could be heard ranting about the British National Party. Another roared through minutes later, manned by a group of Sikhs furiously protesting about the anniversary of Operation Blue Star, the disastrous suppression of a Sikh rebellion by the Indian army in 1984. No-one seemed to be campaigning for anything but extremism and revenge.

The Torygraph, Chalabi and Galloway

A curious offshoot of the raging scandal around Ahmed "The greatest Arab since Mohammed" Chalabi and his exposure as an Iranian spy has been pointed up by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo. As the far more important questions build up, a small British angle has emerged with a story in the Daily Telegraph about the chap who Ahmed Chalabi gave the job of investigating those "secret files" of his. Now, those "secret files" are the ones that all the accusations that various political and media figures were in the pay of Saddam are based on.(Ranter coverage here) That is why those allegations keep being re-publicised in various countries around the world but so far have never really gained any credence. After all, does Chalabi let anyone else near his files? That'll be a "no", not unless you happen to be one of the hacks he decides to drop a document on. Marshall points out that the disappearance of the "investigation"'s files seems very convenient indeed, "like the dog ate my homework".

The first of the scandals let off by the "files" was the one in which the Christian Science Monitor and also the Telegraph accused the hard-left MP George Galloway of taking a rake-off in oil from the old regime. The story was based on a supposed "secret file" that was either "found in a looted archive" or provided by an anonymous source.

A lawsuit resulted, which Galloway won. The CSM had to fork out considerable damages. As far as I know, Galloway's case against the Telegraph is still active. Now, the Daily Telegraph is not a happy bunny at the moment. It is not in a condition to risk losing a major lawsuit, especially not one involving unlimited British libel damages. Circulation has been dropping for a long time and they seem unable to get back over the one million mark, which has a bad significance for advertising rates. And the paper is for sale in the wake of Conrad Black's disgrace. You may call me a terrible cynic, but it seems to me that - were the secret files to be debunked - the legal position would worsen drastically. And that could have painful financial implications. So, if this really had happened:
"Among the records held by Mr Chalabi in his Baghdad headquarters - which were stripped during a raid last month - he claimed to have material relating to the scandal-hit oil-for-food programme run by the United Nations during Saddam's rule.

Last night, it emerged that on the same day as the raid, computer files belonging to the British consultant investigating the oil-for-food scandal were destroyed by hackers and a back-up databank in his Baghdad office wiped out.

Claude Hankes Drielsma, a British businessman and long-time acquaintance of Mr Chalabi, accused America and Britain of mounting a "dirty tricks" campaign to obstruct his inquiry."
it wouldn't be at all bad for the Telegraph either. "A final note: what gives me some pause about this story is that unlike the Brooke case, no other paper seems to have reported anything on this at all. And given it would be a pretty consequential matter, I find that rather odd." So do I, sir...

Now he's begun scaring even the White House staff!

Capitol Hill Blue: Bush's Erratic Behavior Worries White House Aides

Well, looks like the denizens of the West Wing are beginning to feel the pain from working for George W. Bush.
"In meetings with top aides and administration officials, the President goes from quoting the Bible in one breath to obscene tantrums against the media, Democrats and others that he classifies as “enemies of the state.” Worried White House aides paint a portrait of a man on the edge, increasingly wary of those who disagree with him and paranoid of a public that no longer trusts his policies in Iraq or at home.

“It reminds me of the Nixon days,” says a longtime GOP political consultant with contacts in the White House. “Everybody is an enemy; everybody is out to get him. That’s the mood over there.” In interviews with a number of White House staffers who were willing to talk off the record, a picture of an administration under siege has emerged, led by a man who declares his decisions to be “God’s will” and then tells aides to “fuck over” anyone they consider to be an opponent of the administration.

“We’re at war, there’s no doubt about it. What I don’t know anymore is just who the enemy might be,” says one troubled White House aide. “We seem to spend more time trying to destroy John Kerry than al Qaeda and our enemies list just keeps growing and growing.”

It is indeed alarmingly Nixonian. You know, news summaries scrawled with demands to have the Revenue set on reporters who said rude things about his nibs, enemies under the beds and loading up on lawyers. Perhaps George has found one of Nixon's old bottles of Dilantin tablets?Hey Doc, you got any more of the goood stuff? Or maybe he's just back on the sauce? One thing Nixon didn't have, which I suppose was one of his redeeming features, was that curious overtone of religious certainty. God's will, indeed.

Friday, June 04, 2004

The reality of Bout - more horror in a place that has plenty

Well, it would appear that some of the content of the alleged Ruprah-FBI correspondence has been borne out by events. The documents IPIS Research claim to have obtained include references to a planned deal to produce currency for the RCD-Goma rebels in eastern Congo in exchange for diamonds. Now, Air AK47 would not be getting involved there for the first time. Multiple sources report that various Bout operations were involved at various times in the war there, importing guns and exporting minerals in return. It has been alleged that one of the Bout operations was involved in arming the Rwandan militias. Now, the UN-arranged truce between numerous warring factions seems about to collapse with news of a new offensive by an outfit called the RCD Goma against the town of Bukavu. Link RCD stands for Rassemblement pour le Congo Democratique, a name that recalls the old crack about the Organisation of African Unity - it wasn't united, organised or African, so the only true word in the title was "of". It is one of several front organisations or puppet armies established by Rwanda to control its gains in eastern Congo after the (supposed) withdrawal of its own forces. The addition of the town of Goma to the name shows something of the constant factionalism among these groups. Since the 1996 invasion, they must have gone through a good five or six proxies. As the political background is much the same, with the Rwandans still fearful of the ex-interahamwe they chased into the interior coming back and no working government in Congo to control them, to say nothing of the self-interest of their army, it's no surprise that the policies have been much the same.

This area of the world has been something close to hell in the last few years. Its inhabitants have suffered war, genocide, epidemics, exploitation, civil war, volcanic eruption, rape and cannibalism. Without the privatised war structure afforded by Air AK - the ability to export minerals and import arms - little of this could have happened, and certainly it could not have been sustained as long. So - what is the overriding reason to deal with these people?

Was it deniability? Surely, though, an operation to support the Northern Alliance in late 2001 would have barely needed it. Everybody except the enemy agreed! Bush had (in case we forget) declared a war on terrorism, and everyone knew it would start in Afghanistan. So - why get involved with a bunch of dangerous gun runners, running the risk of blowback and double-crossing, not to mention really bad publicity? I'm beginning to think that the real reason may lie in the conservative revolutionism of the Bush team. All must be changed! Neo-conservatism rules! Bush has, I see, hired a lawyer to advise him on the Valerie Plame case. The man he chose, James E. Sharp, also defended the Iran-Contra men. It seems to me that many in the current US government see it necessary and good to restore the amoral freedom of action the CIA enjoyed in Southeast Asia in the 60s or Latin America in the 70s. Covert action is in. Congressional oversight is out. The same pattern is visible in the background to the torturers of Abu Ghraib, with its organisational links back to Don Rumsfeld's private intelligence staff in the Office of Special Plans. The neo-cons are the political heirs to the true believers of the cold war, and one thing they share is their covert-action fascination. There is no Air America these days, so someone else had to be found.

Thanks to "a source" for putting me on to the Congo story.

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

So - how did we all miss this?

The guts of the Viktor Bout story are now well and truly open. Just how did we all miss this? The Belgian Institute for Peace Information (IPIS) published the details back in October, 2003, and it would appear that we were all asleep at the wheel. Here is their shocking report. They claim to have access to documents found in Sanjivan Ruprah's laptop computer, an astonishing scoop if true. Ruprah, a Kenyan of Indian origins, is one of the men most frequently associated with Viktor Bout's activities. He appears to have acted as a salesman for weapons around West Africa, and among other things was the conduit for some of those payments from LISCR to San Air. He was arrested in Belgium in 2002 but then released - it has been said after US pressure was brought to bear - before being arrested again in Italy that October. he was again released, and his location is currently unknown.

If genuine, the documents are dynamite. Ruprah is quoted as being in contact with the FBI from his Belgian cell and apparently asking for US assistance in getting himself released. Further, he is quoted as offering the support of his organisation for the Northern Alliance. In a note apparently sent in late 2001, he gives specific details of weapons needed by the Northerners, including considerable numbers of SA18 Igla man-portable SAMs and attack helicopters, and states that he had consulted Viktor Bout about the project. Well, that I suppose would be that as far as this story goes. Perhaps the Iraq contracts are in the nature of a doubtless lucrative reward or kickback.

The open questions remain. How the hell did IPIS get their hands on these? If the computer was examined by Belgian or Italian authorities, a leak might explain it. What did the Northerners want with so many SAMs? - the Taliban air threat was minimal to say the least. Possibly they were simply profiteering from the sudden influx of US support, or stocking up in anticipation of a future power struggle. And what about the Ukrainian-Taliban deals, that were still going on at the time? The risk that arms shipped via the Bout/Ruprah/Chichakli system - shall we call it Air Kalashnikov? - might have been diverted to other causes is obvious, as is the danger of truly epic blowback.

There are other possibilities. Perhaps the Ruprah letters are phoney or intended for blackmail purposes. But - how did everyone miss this?

(NOTE: The link should now work.)

Monday, May 31, 2004

Why was Mr. C receiving funds from the Liberian shipping register?

Our friend Richard Chichakli, Texan accountant and business identity, would surely agree that some of his customers have been other than controversial. After all, in his capacity as president of San Air General Trading he would surely have been delighted to see some US$925,000 in two months come into the company. The source of these funds was interesting, according to the House Armed Services Committee. The US-based company which manages the Liberian shipping register, LISCR, had paid this sum in two tranches to San Air's Sharjah account with the Standard Chartered Bank (no.01015712572). Later, the ways of commerce would bless San Air with a further US$697,980. What a body set up to register companies and ships with the Liberian government was doing paying an airline this sort of money is not clear. The UN Expert Panel seems to believe that this was in the nature of a consideration for services rendered, specifically the supply of war material.

So they say. No alternative explanation has yet been put forward, however. At the time, a consignment of Bulgarian-made rifles was making its way to the Liberian ruler Charles Taylor by means of an Ilyushin 18 aircraft registered to Centrafricain Airlines, supposedly owned by a Bulgarian firm, chartered by MoldTransavia and re-chartered by Centrafricain. It was supposedly a replacement at short notice for another aircraft (a Tupolev 154) leased by Mold from San Air, which in any case was insuring the Il-18. The original charter was signed by the Bulgarians and Centrafricain, but the payment was made by San Air. The conclusion that San Air paid because it received the LISCR money would seem the simplest explanation.

Saturday, May 29, 2004

The RGS opens its archives

The Royal Geographical Society is going to open its archive to the public. And if you are a map freak like me, that's very good news. Two million of them, in fact.

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