Thursday, November 25, 2004

Ukraine: Perhaps a Slow Rot And a Speedy End

Just to revisit a past post on the Ukrainian perhaps-revolution, I think I ought to make myself a little clearer. What I meant by a "slow rot" as the government's legitimacy or authority is eroded doesn't exclude dramatic change. What I meant was a distinction between a coup de theatre (or indeed coup d'etat), for example either an attempted mass repression or the regime's flight or resignation, and the scenario where a prolonged period of protest goes on while the government still exists - until the crack comes. Once a certain threshold of authority for either side is reached, there will be a dramatic change - either the protests melting away, or the government.

Events seem to be bearing this out - Viktor at the Periscope reports that demonstrations have spread to Dnepropetrovsk (in the officially pro-Yanushkovich Don basin) and that those local authorities who reject the result have formed a central executive committee. Further, a government minister has resigned. Both Neeka and Europhobia report that the crowds of "government supporters" are fraternising with the "orange" demonstrators. Perhaps most significant of all, one of the three geographical commanders of the Ukrainian army has stated that his command will not "fight our own people".

What really worries, me, is this report that the entire board of Yukos have apparently left Russia for the UK. What the hell's that about?

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