Sunday, November 09, 2008

trickledown logistics

It seems to be "Blogging Stuff I Studied At University" Day. Here's an interesting story via the Armchair Generalist concerning the Proliferation Security Initiative, and the case of a North Korean Ilyushin-62 that was apparently prevented from transiting Indian airspace out of suspicion that it was carrying "something" from there to Iran. I've always thought the PSI was actually fairly reasonable for a Bush-era idea, even if I'm always sceptical about North Korea! Iran! stories. Have a read.

Relatedly, I was talking to the owner of a visual-voicemail startup at Telco 2.0 last week (this is why I've been quiet lately) who was an aid worker in Kinshasa at one point. Apparently you could predict outbreaks of violence by the last An-12 or Il-76 to arrive in town - within three weeks there would be trouble, this being the time required for the load of arms to trickle down to the average gunman-in-the-street.

So I'm a little surprised that the latest bout of futile violence in the eastern DRC hasn't left much of a signature in the Viktorfeed data. We haven't had a DRC, Rwanda or Uganda flight for some time, although I can't rule out other departures going on there after their original destination or refiling their flight plan enroute. For example, known DRC previous offenders like Avient sent off some Bermuda Triangle movements some weeks back; ETJ (dodgy Tajik 737s), TLZ (Transliz - Sao Tome registered An12s ex-Grixona) and KUY call signs are often seen giving no clue where they are going. (KUY? A new face - Kaz Air Trans of Kazakhstan, operating 737s bought from old friends Aerovista Gulf Express.)

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