Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Iraqi Command Shift Signals Attack on Iran

It's been little reported anywhere that the appointment of Admiral Fallon as CINCCENTCOM has been matched by the Iraqi Government. They have, over US objections, chosen as commandant of Baghdad an officer who used to be..a sailor. Does this mean war with Iran is imminent?

Meanwhile, I think the blogospheric Iran-talk is getting to me. Obviously, two carrier decks plus Al-Udeid (if the Qataris don't invoke their treaty with Iran), Ali Al Salem, Tallil and Balad AFBs won't be enough to generate the planned strikes and cover both a hugely expanded need for close air support in Iraq and also a continuous patrol over the Iranian coast looking for surface-to-surface missile platforms, and also the combat air patrols needed to protect certain well-known targets in the Gulf. Especially as two of those air bases will have to worry about the Mahdi Army charging the wire. Some fool of a British Air Marshal theorised between the wars that the Army wasn't needed between Gibraltar and Aden because the RAF was mobile and must not become a local garrison (may have been D'Albiac) - but, of course, as soon as the live fire began, they had to be the local garrison or die.

So I shouldn't worry.

But I keep thinking that the Americans are heading for a Suez experience. What would Zhou Xiaochan say - do - when the first Tomahawk hits? Even if he's on-side, what will the central banks of developed Asia and Russia do? - the People's Bank of China faces such gigantic portfolio losses if they head for the exits first. Surely the Americans know that.

So I shouldn't worry. It would have been nice to have joined the Euro, though. But then, that was then, in the palmy days of peace..

To be trivial for a moment, I reckon Zhou Xiaochan will be the first current world leader to have a rock band named after him, after the dust settles.

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