Sunday, March 28, 2010


Here's something interesting. I grabbed the last 6 months' worth of national opinion polls from Wellsy's and graphed the Tory lead in percentage points. On the tiny chart below, you'll observe that the mean is 10 points; the hatched area shows one standard deviation each side of the mean, and I've plotted a linear trend through it. (You can see a full-size version of it here.)

6 months of Tory leads

The interesting bit; there are 21 polls, out of 158, that showed a Conservative lead of more than one standard deviation greater than the mean. All of them occurred before the 29th of January. There are 24 that showed a lead more than one standard deviation less than the mean. 20 out of 24 occurred since the 19th of February. What on earth could have happened between these dates?

I can't do that, Dave

The posters broke in a big way around the 19th of January and the second wave hit in early February. Clifford Singer deserves a knighthood for this.

Geeky poster is geeky (link)

1 comment:

cerebus said...

And now they bring in Saatchi hoping to stem the pisstake.

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