Sunday, June 08, 2008
I've repeatedly suggested that there is an emerging alignment between the Sadrists and political factions close to the NOIA insurgents and ex-insurgents. Here's some news - a new coalition including Sadr, various mix'n'match factions including the Dialogue (close to NOIA), a chunk of Dawa that has split from SCIRI, and the Allawi fanclub (yes - he's still going!). The Iraqi Accordance Front - the main NOIA political wing - isn't there, but it's falling apart between its commitment to working with the Shia-Kurdish alliance and its base's desire to get paid for changing sides. This suggests to me, at least, that the political position is crumbling - the link between the Awakenings and the government is going, and at the same time chunks of the (much hyped) secular middle are falling off and moving closer to the Sadrists.