Friday, May 25, 2007

There will still be no war with Iran

There is still, still not going to be a war with Iran. Carrierwatch: Carl Vinson, Theodore Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, George Washington are all in deep refit. Enterprise and Harry S. Truman are still at the stage of doing CARQUALs, in the Big E's case for reserve squadrons, Ronald Reagan arrived back in San Diego on the 20th April, and Dwight D. Eisenhower was due in Norfolk on the 23rd of May.

John Stennis and Nimitz are currently on station in the Gulf of Oman, the latter ship having just steamed back from Somali waters. Kitty Hawk is due out of Yokosuka for her summer cruise soon, but is tied to the North Pacific by her commitments there. Stennis sailed on the 16th of January, so is due to turn for home on the 16th of June, Nimitz being on station until September.

However much cruft is retailed to the press, literally no reserve exists in the fleet. (It's also worth remembering that the Charles de Gaulle returns toFrance soon.)

Every blogger and their cat has opined on the brace of sooper sensational stories in the Grauniad by Simon Tisdall. The first rehearsed the usual Dr Evil theories about Iranian super spies controlling the war in Iraq, as usual without any facts. Tisdall's source pointed to the supposed Revolutionary Guardsmen arrested in Kurdistan - you would have thought that if there was any evidence, they wouldn't need to keep trotting that one out, but the paper wasn't in the mood to engage in source criticism, instead devoting much space to a variety of cool infographix - woo! a silhouette of a Bradley armoured fighting vehicle!

The second claimed that the US was considering doing a mea culpa and trying to turn to the UN, again factlessly. My two cents are as follows - obviously the first is empty, looking at the carrier plot. The second, unlikely as it may sound, might contain a grain of truth. It was recently reported that the Baker-Hamilton plan was being reoffdusted, after all.

This post, and this one, not to mention this one, recommend themselves.

Update: The Iran-Syria Operations Group, it turns out, has been disbanded.


Anonymous said...

This might explain why Sadr has reappeared in the last few days and the Brits killed his 2IC in Basra and the Yanks are making aerial strikes in Sadr City. He is a spoke in the Baker Hamilton plan.

A.E. said...

Tisdall is really sloppy lately. He's been reporting a number of bizarrely inaccurate stories about Iraq.

Anonymous said...

I still find it amazing that the MSM doesn't seem to care where the carriers are. "Ike in Lisbo - no war for six months at least" is that kind of headline that I've been looking for in vain for six months or more. It's not as if following the USN newsfeeds is appreciably more difficult than unattributable tea and biscuits in the yard at Portcullis House.

Chris Williams

Simon said...

I thought the Bradley AFV illustration was attached to a separate "I was there in the immediate aftermath of an IED attack" piece by Sean Smith?,,2085036,00.html

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