1) The Kurd who's been made President - really as a side payment for not declaring independence - just said he wants the Shia prime minister to quit, the same week as it turns out they've cut a deal to get out their oil without everyone else.
2) The Shia just (as good as unilaterally) changed the law to, in effect, consider abstentions to be votes for the constitution.
3) The pro-British police keep arresting our spooks.
4) The chap we say is Terrorist No.1 just declared war on all Shia except, in effect, Moqtada al-Sadr - the chap whose militia is the police.
Assessing these indicators, what eventuality should we be planning for in Iraq?
3) Stagnation followed by 1) or 2)