tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post8013391543302945191..comments2023-10-24T10:09:22.146+01:00Comments on The Yorkshire Ranter: Climate change denier redefines the number 10Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17153530634675543954noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post-16511969221856217522009-06-11T09:18:06.458+01:002009-06-11T09:18:06.458+01:00Minor correction (I shouldn't post late at nig...Minor correction (I shouldn't post late at night):<br /><br />The slopes of the linear fits are irrelevant for the base period correction.bluegruenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post-23803791841663799792009-06-10T22:44:54.740+01:002009-06-10T22:44:54.740+01:00David Duff,
the graphic on your page is seriousl...David Duff, <br /><br />the graphic on your page is seriously skewed in several ways, or in other words: plain wrong.<br /><br />Let me explain:<br /><br />You are obviously using <a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1988.3/to:2008.4/plot/rss/from:1979/to:1998/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1979/to:1998/trend" rel="nofollow">RSS MSU lower troposphere data</a> instead of surface temperature, judging from the shape of your red curve and your post. <br /><br />a) You are comparing monthly data to annual data. The former has a much higher variability than the latter. Why don't you just use annual data, so that you at least appear to compare apples to apples?<br /><br /><br />b) You fail to correct for the different baseperiods of Hansen's prediction (1951 to 1980) and RSS MSU (1979 to 1998). Judging by comparison with GISTEMP (which uses the same base period as Hansen's original plot) the RSS data needs to be shifted up by about 0.25°C (eyeballed from the center of the trendlines in the above plot) to match the projection's temperature scale! The difference in slope of the two linear fits would result in pushing the red line in your graph even higher, but that's a smaller effect. In effect, this necessary correction pushes the red line a good grid cell upwards.<br /><br />Point b) is fatal to the veracity of your plot. It also destroys the argument you are basing on your graph.<br /><br />Alex, feel free to distribute this info, it's not really rocket science.bluegruenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post-74181395210865339652009-06-10T21:54:50.083+01:002009-06-10T21:54:50.083+01:00Nope, that doesn't surprise me, Duff is well k...Nope, that doesn't surprise me, Duff is well known for acting the idiot.guthriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17992984293423290387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post-18241892612323451262009-06-10T11:56:49.830+01:002009-06-10T11:56:49.830+01:00Now, now, no need to sulk! You complained that my...Now, now, no need to sulk! <i>You</i> complained that my dates were incorrectly chosen so I went to your favourite Guru and used <i>his</i> dates and <i>his</i> forecasts.<br /><br />Suddenly <i>you</i> have nothing to say!David Duffhttp://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post-18275603004305055562009-06-10T09:14:29.820+01:002009-06-10T09:14:29.820+01:00You haven't addressed the point, nor read it.You haven't addressed the point, nor read it.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17153530634675543954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5467119.post-75307412989447361992009-06-10T09:08:41.558+01:002009-06-10T09:08:41.558+01:00Good morning, Alex. I hadn't realised that yo...Good morning, Alex. I hadn't realised that your were the infamous 'Yorkshire Ranter' - I should have guessed!<br /><br />Perhaps your reader would care to glance at this link (the correct one this time - sorry for the error) which displays Dr. Hansen's *own graph* in which he made his, er, historic forecast to Congress of rising global temperatures just over 20 years ago. Unfortunately, some cheeky so-and-so has had the temerity to scribble - in red ink! - the actual temperatures.<br /><br />http://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/duff_nonsense/2008/07/ok-my-last-poke-at-dr-strangelove-hansen.html<br /><br />"Shome mishtake, surely!"David Duffhttp://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/noreply@blogger.com